Ending UK furlough scheme may cost ‘1.2m jobs’, think tank predicts
Experts say keeping wage subsidy programme ‘might have paid for itself’ by preventing redundancies
The government’s decision to end the furlough scheme is a “mistake” that could trigger the loss of 1.2 million jobs by the end of this year, a leading think tank has warned.
Amid faltering hopes of a V-shaped economic recovery, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (Nieser) says that continuing the wage subsidy programme “might have paid for itself” by saving jobs and protecting skills.
By contrast, ending the scheme in October may help push unemployment “from 1.35 million to three million”, according to the experts, who also predicted that “the economy would not return to pre-pandemic levels until the second half of 2023”, The Times reports.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Continuing the government subsidies - which currently cover 80% of pay up to £2,500 a month - “would have been relatively inexpensive, and by preventing a rise in long-term unemployment might have paid for itself”, said Nieser deputy director Garry Young.
“The planned closure of furlough seems to be a mistake, motivated by an understandable desire to limit spending. There is a risk it is coming to an end prematurely and this increases the probability of economic scarring,” he added.
The furlough scheme has supported around 9.5 million workers in a total of about 1.2 million companies to date, and has cost £31.7bn, according to latest Treasury figures.
The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that by the time the scheme is wrapped up, it will have cost a total of £52bn.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak said earlier this month that the scheme “cannot and should not go on forever”. Instead, the support programme will be replaced with a Jobs Retention Bonus of £1,000 to be paid to businesses for every furloughed employee kept on as staff until at least January 2021.
However, Young argues that the bonus is “too small to be effective - a one-off payment of £1,000 per employee compared to an average wage of £530 per week”.
The Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, claimed last week that Britain is heading for a V-shaped recovery, but rival central bank policymakers fear that the economy is “struggling” as job cuts gather pace, The Guardian says.
Nieser shares these gloomier expectations. The think tank expects the UK economy to “shrink 10% this year and recover just 6% in 2021”, while the national debt is projected to “hit 105% of GDP as borrowing jumps from 2.4% to 17% of GDP to pay for the crisis”, reports The Times.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joe Evans is the world news editor at TheWeek.co.uk. He joined the team in 2019 and held roles including deputy news editor and acting news editor before moving into his current position in early 2021. He is a regular panellist on The Week Unwrapped podcast, discussing politics and foreign affairs.
Before joining The Week, he worked as a freelance journalist covering the UK and Ireland for German newspapers and magazines. A series of features on Brexit and the Irish border got him nominated for the Hostwriter Prize in 2019. Prior to settling down in London, he lived and worked in Cambodia, where he ran communications for a non-governmental organisation and worked as a journalist covering Southeast Asia. He has a master’s degree in journalism from City, University of London, and before that studied English Literature at the University of Manchester.
-
Cicada-geddon: the fungus that controls insects like 'zombies'
Under The Radar Expert says bugs will develop 'hypersexualisation' despite their genitals falling off
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
'Voters know Biden and Trump all too well'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Is the Gaza war tearing US university campuses apart?
Today's Big Question Protests at Columbia University, other institutions, pit free speech against student safety
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Is David Cameron overshadowing Rishi Sunak?
Talking Point Current PM faces 'thorny dilemma' as predecessor enjoys return to world stage
By The Week UK Published
-
Less than total recall
Editor's Letter Why our brains want to forget the darkest days of the pandemic
By Theunis Bates Published
-
'A wonky bureaucratic tweak has dramatically changed how Americans drive'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Will Aukus pact survive a second Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question US, UK and Australia seek to expand 'game-changer' defence partnership ahead of Republican's possible return to White House
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Can Boris Johnson save Rishi Sunak?
Today's Big Question Former PM could 'make the difference' between losing the next election and annihilation
By The Week UK Published
-
Badenoch, Johnson or 'full Trump': who is the future of the Tory Party?
Today's Big Question Tory moderates are preparing to do battle with the right of the party in a post-Sunak leadership election
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
It's the economy, Sunak: has 'Rishession' halted Tory fightback?
Today's Big Question PM's pledge to deliver economic growth is 'in tatters' as stagnation and falling living standards threaten Tory election wipeout
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Fasting to burger buffets: the weird and wonderful diets of politicians
Why Everyone's Talking About Rishi Sunak reportedly starts his week with a 36-hour fast
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published