Coronavirus: government withdraws graphs showing Covid deaths surpassing first wave
Data inflated forecasts for fatalities if UK did not enter a second lockdown
Downing Street has been forced to retract supporting data cited during Boris Johnson’s announcement of the second nationwide lockdown in England.
The graphs showed projections of the number of deaths that could occur if the UK did not impose harsh restrictions during a second wave. The government’s Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance warned of the “very grim picture” painted by the data, which suggested that the UK would see up to 1,500 Covid deaths a day by early December.
But documents released by the government since Saturday’s press conference reveal that the figures were far too high and have been “amended after an error was found”, The Telegraph reports.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The predicted tally has now been revised down, “reducing the upper end of the scale to around 1,000 deaths a day by 8 December – on a par with the peak of the pandemic in April”, the paper adds.
Leading scientist Professor Carl Heneghan, of Oxford University, said last night that the original graphs had been found to be “riddled with errors”.
“I don’t know if the data is being rushed through or if what we are seeing is bias being introduced, but what we are seeing looks systematic. All the mistakes are consistently in one direction, so you have to ask whether it is being done on purpose to suit the policies, like lockdown, they want to impose,” he told The Telegraph.
After being challenged about the graphs during an appearance earlier today on LBC radio, Business Minister Nadhim Zahawi said: “The models are models and we are very clear, those are different models by different groups who are looking at that. The [number of] people in hospital has gone from 2,600 a month ago to over 12,000 this month.”
Yesterday, the UK reported 24,141 new Covid-19 cases and a further 378 deaths, according to latest government figures.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joe Evans is the world news editor at TheWeek.co.uk. He joined the team in 2019 and held roles including deputy news editor and acting news editor before moving into his current position in early 2021. He is a regular panellist on The Week Unwrapped podcast, discussing politics and foreign affairs.
Before joining The Week, he worked as a freelance journalist covering the UK and Ireland for German newspapers and magazines. A series of features on Brexit and the Irish border got him nominated for the Hostwriter Prize in 2019. Prior to settling down in London, he lived and worked in Cambodia, where he ran communications for a non-governmental organisation and worked as a journalist covering Southeast Asia. He has a master’s degree in journalism from City, University of London, and before that studied English Literature at the University of Manchester.
-
'Good riddance to the televised presidential debate'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Caitlin Clark the No. 1 pick in bullish WNBA Draft
Speed Read As expected, she went to the Indiana Fever
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Today's political cartoons - April 16, 2024
Cartoons Tuesday's cartoons - sleepyhead, little people, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Is David Cameron overshadowing Rishi Sunak?
Talking Point Current PM faces 'thorny dilemma' as predecessor enjoys return to world stage
By The Week UK Published
-
Less than total recall
Editor's Letter Why our brains want to forget the darkest days of the pandemic
By Theunis Bates Published
-
'A wonky bureaucratic tweak has dramatically changed how Americans drive'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Will Aukus pact survive a second Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question US, UK and Australia seek to expand 'game-changer' defence partnership ahead of Republican's possible return to White House
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Can Boris Johnson save Rishi Sunak?
Today's Big Question Former PM could 'make the difference' between losing the next election and annihilation
By The Week UK Published
-
It's the economy, Sunak: has 'Rishession' halted Tory fightback?
Today's Big Question PM's pledge to deliver economic growth is 'in tatters' as stagnation and falling living standards threaten Tory election wipeout
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Why your local council may be going bust
The Explainer Across England, local councils are suffering from grave financial problems
By The Week UK Published
-
Rishi Sunak and the right-wing press: heading for divorce?
Talking Point The Telegraph launches 'assault' on PM just as many Tory MPs are contemplating losing their seats
By Keumars Afifi-Sabet, The Week UK Published