Global carbon emissions set to rise by 2% this year
Scientists divided over whether this is a ‘giant leap backwards for mankind’ or just a blip
A major new study has found that global CO2 emissions are set to hit a record high this year - confounding scientists who previously predicted that carbon emissions had reached their peak.
In a new report, researchers from the University of East Anglia and the Global Carbon Project (GCP) say CO2 emissions are projected to rise by 2% to reach 41 billion tonnes by the end of 2017. The increase is largely down to growth in coal-fired electricity generation, and oil and gas consumption in China, the scientists claim.
The GCP, a collaboration between international science organisations, aims to monitor global carbon emissions and their sources in order to help “slow the rate of increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere”.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Whether the increase in CO2 emissions this year is “just a blip that is followed by a falling trend, or is the start of a worrying upward trend, remains to be seen”, says The Guardian.
Many scientists believe the new figures are cause for concern. “Global CO2 emissions appear to be going up strongly once again after a three-year stable period. This is very disappointing,” says Professor Corinne Le Quere, who led the new research. “The urgency for reducing emissions means they should really be already decreasing now.”
“There was a big push to sign the Paris agreement on climate change but there is a feeling that not very much has happened since, a bit of slackening,” she continues. “What happens after 2017 is very open and depends on how much effort countries are going to make. It is time to take really seriously the implementation of the Paris agreement.”
She added that the hurricanes and floods seen earlier this year were “a window into the future”.
A giant leap backwards?
The jump in carbon emissions that drive global warming is a “giant leap backwards for humankind”, according to Amy Luers, executive director of Future Earth, a global research initiative.
“Pushing the Earth closer to tipping points is deeply concerning. Emissions need to peak soon and approach zero by 2050.”
However, not everyone agrees. Climate economist Professor Nicholas Stern, from the London School of Economics, said: “I would not be alarmed. There will be some fluctuations - for example, around poor rains and hydro. We should also remember that the methods used to calculate emissions will have their own errors.”
He says there is strong climate action in China. “It has a very clear strategy, particularly on coal and energy efficiency and they are getting, and will get, results.” However, Stern adds, it is “vital” that all countries ramp up their emissions pledges and that richer countries support action across the world.
Study co-author Glen Peters, fro the Cicero Centre for International Climate Research in Oslo, says that China’s emissions were set to rise by 3.5%, driven by more demand for coal amid stronger economic growth.
China, the world’s top greenhouse gas emitter, accounts for almost 30% of global emissions, says The Independent.
US emissions were set to decline by 0.4% this year, a smaller fall than in recent years, reflecting a rise in the burning of coal.
Coal’s gains are linked to an increase in the price of natural gas, which makes coal more attractive in power plants, Peters told Reuters, rather than to the effects of US President Donald Trump’s pro-coal policies.
A three-year pause
This is the first rise in global emissions for four years. In the paper published in Environmental Research Letters, the researchers said the three-year pause in emissions growth was down to an increased uptake of renewable-energy technologies and a reduction in China’s coal consumption.
Although pauses have been observed prior to 2014-16, GCP executive director Dr Pep Canadell said that they typically correlated with economic downturns such as the global financial crisis.
“The past three years were quite exceptional in so far as that in the whole record, it’s the first time that we saw emissions not growing at the same time as the global economy was growing quite strongly,” he said.
Worldwide, 21 countries, including the US, Denmark and France, have reduced their CO2 emissions over the last ten years while achieving economic growth.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
'Make legal immigration a more plausible option'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
LA-to-Las Vegas high-speed rail line breaks ground
Speed Read The railway will be ready as soon as 2028
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Israel's military intelligence chief resigns
Speed Read Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva is the first leader to quit for failing to prevent the Hamas attack in October
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
What is rock flour and how can it help to fight climate change?
The Explainer Glacier dust to the rescue
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
Arid Gulf states hit with year's worth of rain
Speed Read The historic flooding in Dubai is tied to climate change
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The growing thirst for camel milk
Under the radar Climate change and health-conscious consumers are pushing demand for nutrient-rich product – and the growth of industrialised farming
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Why curbing methane emissions is tricky in fight against climate change
The Explainer Tackling the second most significant contributor to global warming could have an immediate impact
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK Published
-
How the EU undermines its climate goals with animal farming subsidies
Under the radar Bloc's agricultural policy incentivises carbon-intensive animal farming over growing crops, despite aims to be carbon-neutral
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Why are people and elephants fighting in Sri Lanka?
Under The Radar Farmers encroaching into elephant habitats has led to deaths on both sides
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
How climate change is contributing to global unrest
In Depth Some experts argue that global warming can be tied to rising levels of violence around the world
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Why last-chance tourism is the latest controversial travel trend
The Explainer Race to visit places threatened by climate change 'before it's too late'
By Austin Chen, The Week UK Published