In Brief

Can pregnancy rates predict a recession?

Analysis shows number of women falling pregnant drops several months before the start of an economic downturn

Pregnancy rates could be used to predict an imminent economic recession, new research from US academics has suggested.

The authors of Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator? tracked more than 100 million births in the US between 1989 and 2016 and found that the rate of conceptions began to fall several months before an economic downturn.

The BBC says “economists are frequently criticised for failing to accurately predict the direction of economic growth [and] increasingly they are looking beyond traditional measures such as manufacturing output, retail spending and house prices to help build a more complex and accurate picture”.

It has long been accepted that birth rates decline as a result of falling consumer confidence in the middle of a recession, but now it appears that pregnancy rates could be used to predict future economic productivity before it starts to decline.

There also appears to be a link between the rate of fertility decline and the scale of the subsequent downturn, and the report’s authors say it is more accurate than many traditional indicators.

Summarising their findings, Daniel Hungerman, Kasey Buckles and Steven Lugauer suggested proxy data like the sale of fertility and pregnancy related goods should be monitored for signs of an impending economic downturn.

Recommended

How Truss and Sunak would tackle a recession
Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak at a debate
Getting to grips with . . .

How Truss and Sunak would tackle a recession

What next for the UK economy?
Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey faces the media on 4 August 2022
Today’s big question

What next for the UK economy?

How will recession affect the UK?
Consumer spending would drop sharply in a recession
Today’s big question

How will recession affect the UK?

Britain’s ‘astronomical’ inflation rise in five charts
Supermarket shelves being stacked
Getting to grips with . . .

Britain’s ‘astronomical’ inflation rise in five charts

Popular articles

Will China invade Taiwan?
Chinese troops on mobile rocket launchers during a parade in Beijing
Fact file

Will China invade Taiwan?

Is World War Three on the cards?
Ukrainian soldiers patrol on the frontline in Zolote, Ukraine
In Depth

Is World War Three on the cards?

Ten Things You Need to Know Today: 7 August 2022
10 Downing Street
Daily Briefing

Ten Things You Need to Know Today: 7 August 2022

The Week Footer Banner