No-deal Brexit ‘could cost millennials £108,000 each’
Analysis of Brexit scenarios finds Norway-style trade agreement best for young people
Young British people stand to miss out on more than £100,000 each in lost earnings by 2050 if the UK goes ahead with a no-deal Brexit, a new report warns.
Analysis by campaign group Our Future Our Choice, which is backed by John Major, used models by Oxford University economist Tommy Peto that draw on government Brexit briefing papers to predict the economic impact of the various potential Brexit scenarios.
The research found that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, in which the UK would default to World Trade Organization (WTO) trade rules, the average young person starting work now would earn between £44,000 and £108,000 less over the next 32 years.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
In the case of a free trade agreement (FTA) Brexit, a scenario based on Canada’s deal with the EU, those losses stand at between £30,000 and £72,000 by 2050.
The best form of Brexit for young people appears to be membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), an arrangement similar to Norway’s, but even that is forecast to cost them up to £32,000 compared with remaining in the EU.
The findings back up claims that “at a time of sky-high house prices and crippling student debt, the under-30s will be the biggest losers” of the UK quitting the European Union, says Metro.
The Independent adds that the study “lays bare the full cost of Brexit for the generation that opposed it”.
In the foreword to the report, former prime minister Major says: “Under every scenario that has been independently modelled - even by our own British Government - the UK will be poorer and weaker, and the poorest regions and the least well-off will suffer the most.”
“I would urge every parliamentarian to read and absorb the findings of this report,” he continues, adding that Brexit “was never the choice of the young, who voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU while their elders voted to leave”.
The report also calls for a second vote on the final terms of the Brexit deal - known as the “People’s Vote” - in order to give a voice to younger people that were not old enough to vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum.
“Since June 2016 there are nearly two million more young people eligible to vote. It is only right they have a say in their nation’s future,” says Major.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Duchess of Gloucester: the hard-working royal you've never heard of
Under The Radar Outer royal 'never expected' to do duties but has stepped up to the plate
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Are 'judge shopping' rules a blow to Republicans?
Today's Big Question How the abortion pill case got to the Supreme Court
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Climate change is driving Indian women to choose sterilization
under the radar Faced with losing their jobs, they are making a life-altering decision
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
Will Aukus pact survive a second Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question US, UK and Australia seek to expand 'game-changer' defence partnership ahead of Republican's possible return to White House
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
It's the economy, Sunak: has 'Rishession' halted Tory fightback?
Today's Big Question PM's pledge to deliver economic growth is 'in tatters' as stagnation and falling living standards threaten Tory election wipeout
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Stormont power-sharing in sight: 'good news' for Northern Ireland?
Talking Point Unionists vote to end two-year boycott after agreeing legislative package to address post-Brexit trading arrangements
By The Week UK Published
-
Why your local council may be going bust
The Explainer Across England, local councils are suffering from grave financial problems
By The Week UK Published
-
Rishi Sunak and the right-wing press: heading for divorce?
Talking Point The Telegraph launches 'assault' on PM just as many Tory MPs are contemplating losing their seats
By Keumars Afifi-Sabet, The Week UK Published
-
How Finland's tightening presidential race could affect future of Europe
Under the radar Country has key geostrategic position along Nato's longest border with an increasingly belligerent Russia
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published