Brexit poll: how the UK would vote today
Survey of 20,000 voters predicts eight-point victory for Remain if EU referendum were held again
UK voters would vote to stay in the European Union if Brexit were put to a second vote, according to a new poll of more than 20,000 people from across every constituency in Britain.
A total of 54% of respondents said they would back Remain if a second referendum were held - indicating “a swing of six percentage points from Leave to Remain since the 2016 referendum”, reports Politico. And 105 local authority areas that voted Leave in 2016 would now vote to stay.
The poll, by Channel 4 and Survation, also found that if the UK and EU agree an exit deal, 55% of voters would support at least one version of a second referendum, whether on overall membership or the specific terms of the deal.
However, the nation appears to be sharply divided over what Theresa May should do next if she is unable to hammer out a Brexit deal by 29 March 2019, the date when Britain is due to exit the bloc.
A total of 35% of those quizzed said Britain should stay in the EU in a “no-deal” scenario, while 36% said the nation should leave. Only 19% thought Brexit should be delayed to allow more time to negotiate.
Other recent polls have painted a similar picture. In a survey of just over 3,000 people for Politico, 53.5% of respondents said they would rather Britain stayed in the EU than leave without a deal.
According to Business Insider, the findings are “likely to bolster calls from anti-Brexit campaigners for the Government to arrange a second Brexit referendum on the terms of Britain’s departure from the EU, with an option to remain on the ballot paper” - a proposal that the prime minister has strongly rejected.
Noting the “strategic headache” facing May, the news site adds: “Her own voters are much more hardline than the wider electorate, so she must try and keep her own core supporters happy [with] her Brexit strategy while finding a solution which other voters deem suitable.”
The Channel 4 poll also revealed a national split over the prospect of Brexit triggering the break-up of the UK: 44% of respondents said they were very or quite concerned about the possibility of Northern Ireland leaving the UK, while 42% were not very or not at all concerned.
The equivalent figures for Scotland saw an equal split, with 46% on either side.