Will the UK really have the highest death toll in Europe?
Virology expert looks at the data on predicted Covid-19 fatalities in the UK
Jeremy Rossman, Honorary Senior Lecturer in Virology at the University of Kent and President of Research-Aid Networks, examines the UK death toll in an article originally written for The Conversation.
Within four months, the UK will have 66,314 fatalities from Covid-19, according to a recent report from the University of Washingon’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). This would result in the UK having the highest number of fatalities out of any country in Europe – according to the report, more than Italy (a total of 23,000) and Spain (19,209).
At first glance, this new model seems to suggest that the situation in the UK is significantly worse than appreciated. But in the past two weeks, we have seen several other predictions, including an Oxford University model that suggests that more than half the UK population may already have been infected and an Imperial College model that predicts up to 260,000 fatalities from Covid-19 if the government had taken no action.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Based in part on the data from the Imperial study, the UK government adjusted its Covid-19 strategy and began introducing closures and physical distancing measures. The Imperial model predicts that with these measures (including school closures, stay-at-home orders and physical distancing for the entire UK population) the number of fatalities might only reach 20,000.
Only as good as your data
Prediction models are just estimates of what might happen and a model is only as good as the data that goes into it. The IHME model is based on the current rate of Covid-19 fatalities in a given country. This contrasts with many other models, which predict fatality rates by extrapolating from the number of reported cases, of which we have more data but of questionable accuracy (see below).
In Italy, the IHME model may be very accurate as there is a large amount of data on fatality rates over time. Yet in the UK there is a limited timeframe of Covid-19 fatalities and so less data with which to estimate future trends.
The IHME is planning to continually update its model using new data, so the model will probably become more accurate over time. But at present, the limited amount of data means that the IHME model has a large range of possible outcomes, ranging from 14,572 to 219,211 deaths in the UK. This puts the IMHE and Imperial models in roughly the same range.
A lack of accurate data
All current Covid-19 prediction models suffer from a lack of accurate data on case numbers and fatality rates. This is because many Covid-19 infections are mild, or potentially even asymptomatic, and are often not identified as confirmed cases.
Estimates are that up to 86% of cases may not be identified as Covid-19. This number may be even higher in countries such as the UK that have only been testing the most critical and at-risk cases. Without knowing the actual number of infections, it is not possible to determine an accurate case-fatality rate and so the accuracy of many predictions is limited.
The IHME model attempts to avoid this limitation by focusing only on fatalities. But there is a similar concern that not all Covid-19 fatalities are being accurately reported. For example, people who pass away at home having never been tested for Covid-19 may not be included in some counts. Additionally, the IHME model may miss new hot spots of infection, as fatality numbers lag behind case numbers by one to two weeks.
At present, both case-based and fatality-based prediction models are limited by the amount and quality of the available data.
The worth of models?
While these models may not be able to accurately predict the specific number of Covid-19 fatalities over the coming months, they still offer a useful glimpse of potential futures. For example, in none of the predictions for the UK do we see fewer than 14,000 fatalities or more than 260,000 (if no interventions were taken). This gives a context for policy decisions and our collective actions.
We like being able to quantify things and it is easier to convince people of the importance of physical distancing if we can say that it will save 236,000 lives.
This may not end up being the actual number but the fact is that we are in the middle of a deadly pandemic and it’s clear that strong action is necessary to save many lives. Does it matter if we are acting to save 20,000 or 200,000? We needed to act either way – and we have. When looking to the future, we cannot tell how many will die of Covid-19, but we can guarantee that it will still be too many.
Jeremy Rossman, Honorary Senior Lecturer in Virology and President of Research-Aid Networks, University of Kent
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Today's political cartoons - April 21, 2024
Cartoons Sunday's cartoons - devilish decrees, biblical blunders, and more
By The Week US Published
-
5 carefully selected cartoons about the Trump-Daniels jury selection process
Cartoons Artists take on a stress-free life, rare peers, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Loire Valley Lodges review: sleep, feast and revive in treetop luxury
The Week Recommends Forest hideaway offers chance to relax and reset in Michelin key-winning comfort
By Julia O'Driscoll, The Week UK Published
-
Covid four years on: have we got over the pandemic?
Today's Big Question Brits suffering from both lockdown nostalgia and collective trauma that refuses to go away
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
The hollow classroom
Opinion Remote school let kids down. It will take much more than extra tutoring for kids to recover.
By Mark Gimein Published
-
Excess screen time is making children only see what is in front of them
Under the radar The future is looking blurry. And very nearsighted.
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
Covid-19: what to know about UK's new Juno and Pirola variants
in depth Rapidly spreading new JN.1 strain is 'yet another reminder that the pandemic is far from over'
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
Long-term respiratory illness is here to stay
The Explainer Covid is not the only disease with a long version
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
Covid inquiry: the most important questions for Boris Johnson
Talking Point Former PM has faced weeks of heavy criticism from former colleagues at the public hearing
By The Week Staff Published
-
China's pneumonia cases: should we be worried?
The Explainer Experts warn against pushing 'pandemic panic button' following outbreak of respiratory illness
By Keumars Afifi-Sabet, The Week UK Published
-
Vallance diaries: Boris Johnson 'bamboozled' by Covid science
Speed Read Then PM struggled to get his head around key terms and stats, chief scientific advisor claims
By The Week UK Published