In Depth

Poll blitz gives Miliband's team a big morale boost

Ed even beats Dave in personal rating. But Labour activists will be told: ‘Keep your feet on the ground’

Columnist Don Brind

A clutch of five polls – the largest number released in a single day so far - give Labour activists a huge morale boost. Three have Labour leads of three, four and even six percentage points. The two others have the parties neck and neck, with the Tories well short of what David Cameron needs to stay in power.

Survation for the Daily Mirror delivers a triple whammy. Not only does it give Labour a four-point lead, but it also has Ed Miliband outscoring Cameron for the first time in the personal ratings and it shows that a majority of Tory voters back Miliband’s crackdown on “non-doms” who avoid UK tax. 

The headline figures from Survation are: Lab 35 (up 2), Con 31 (down 1), Ukip 15 (down 3), Lib Dems 9 (u/c), Greens 4 (up 1).

But the best figures for Labour come from Panelbase: Lab 37 (up 4), Con 31 (down 2), Ukip 16 (down 1), Lib Dems 8 (up 1), Ukip 16 (down 1), Lib Dems 8 (up 1), Greens 4 (down 1).

TNS puts Labour three points ahead of the Tories: Lab 33 (up 1), Con 30 (down 3), Lib Dems 8 (u/c), Ukip 19 (up 3), Greens 4 (down 1).

The weekly ComRes poll for the Daily Mail and ITV sees the Tories still ahead but with a shift towards Labour. A striking feature of this poll is that the Liberal Democrats have hit 12 per cent - their best score in any poll this year. Con 34 (down 2), LAB 33 (up 1), Lib Dems 12 (up 3), Ukip 12 (u/c), Greens 4 (down 1).

The one poll that’s out of line today is the new one from YouGov which sees a switch in the lead from a one-point Labour lead to a one-point Tory lead. Con 35 (up 1), Lab 34 (down 1), Lib Dems 8 (u/c), Ukip 12 (down 1), Greens 4 (down 1). 

But even if YouGov proves the most accurate, the Tory lead of one point is way off where they need to be.

That said, YouGov hasanother dampener for Labour: a new Scottish poll suggests Labour are falling back rather than making inroads north of the border. SNP 49 (up 3), Lab 25 (down 4), Con 18 (up 2), Lib Dems 4 (up 1).

The five-poll blitz means the Tories will have to issue yet another “keep you nerve” message. But while Cameron and campaign chief Lynton Crosby will insist they can still be the biggest party, many Conservative supporters will be getting twitchy.

The Guardian calls it “the day the polls turned”. But Labour will be cautious: they’ll be happy they appear to have won the early skirmishes but “keep your feet on the ground” will be the message from Team Miliband.

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