Ashcroft marginal polling dashes Tory hopes
Cheer for Miliband, disappointment for Cameron, as national trend towards Tories fails to feed through
Tory hopes that a narrowing of the gap in the national polls would hand them victory in key marginal seats have been dashed by a new batch of constituency polls released yesterday by Lord Ashcroft.
Ashcroft returned to eight Labour target seats which he last surveyed in the autumn when Labour was up to five points ahead in the national voting intention polls. The aim was to assess whether, now that the two main parties are virtually neck-and-neck in the national polls (see note at foot of column), this would be reflected in more Tory holds.
In fact, only one of the seats - Worcester - that looked likely to be Labour gains has switched to the Tory hold column. By contrast, Labour’s lead has increased in four seats - City of Chester, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Nuneaton, Wirral West – while in Southampton Itchen a tie has been transformed into an eight-point Labour lead.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The Political Betting website declares the new polling “will bring great cheer to Labour and much disappointment to the Tories, who would have hoped the national polling trends would feed into the marginals”.
It calculates that there is a five per cent swing to Labour across the eight polls which is actually greater than the swing in the previous batch of Ashcroft polling released in December.
The polling suggests Labour are on course to take around 40 Tory seats on 7 May. This would give Ed Miliband the chance of leading the biggest party in the House of Commons – depending on how grim the news is from Scotland where the SNP still looks set to make heavy inroads into Labour’s Scottish ranks.
NOTE: Today’s YouGov national voting intention poll for The Sun actually has the Tories two points behind Labour, but given the margin of error, that still counts as neck-and-neck: Con 34 (up 1), Lab 36 (up 1) Lib Dems 7 (u/c), Ukip 12 (down 1), Greens 6 (down 1).
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Indie film's 'very brief' use of AI sparks backlash and calls for boycotts
Talking Points Did the creators of a new horror movie make a deal with the artificial intelligence devil?
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Could Taylor Swift swing the election?
Today's Big Question The pop star has outsized influence — and that extends beyond the music industry
By Anya Jaremko-Greenwold Published
-
Kevin Hart awarded Mark Twain Prize
Speed Read He is the 25th recipient of the prestigious comedy prize
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Will Aukus pact survive a second Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question US, UK and Australia seek to expand 'game-changer' defence partnership ahead of Republican's possible return to White House
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Can Cameron put the Falklands sovereignty dispute to bed?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary says issue 'not up for discussion' ahead of visit amid renewed push from Argentina
By The Week UK Published
-
It's the economy, Sunak: has 'Rishession' halted Tory fightback?
Today's Big Question PM's pledge to deliver economic growth is 'in tatters' as stagnation and falling living standards threaten Tory election wipeout
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Will America recognize a Palestinian state?
Today's Big Question Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu opposes the move. Some see it as the only route to peace.
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Fasting to burger buffets: the weird and wonderful diets of politicians
Why Everyone's Talking About Rishi Sunak reportedly starts his week with a 36-hour fast
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Why your local council may be going bust
The Explainer Across England, local councils are suffering from grave financial problems
By The Week UK Published
-
Rishi Sunak and the right-wing press: heading for divorce?
Talking Point The Telegraph launches 'assault' on PM just as many Tory MPs are contemplating losing their seats
By Keumars Afifi-Sabet, The Week UK Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published