General Election 2019

Who will win the general election? Voting day poll results and odds

Findings of final poll of the campaign released as voters head to the ballot box

The final poll of the election shows the Conservative Party maintaining its lead over Labour and the other rival parties.

The Ipsos Mori/London Evening Standard voting intention data has the Tories out in front on 44% - which if accurate would see the Tories claiming their largest share of the vote since Margaret Thatcher’s first election victory in 1979.

Labour are in second place on 33%, with the Liberal Democrats third on 12%. The Green Party are predicted to take 3% of the vote, with the Brexit Party on 2%.

However, the poll also found that almost one in four voters could still change their mind. Or to put it another way, everything is still to play for in one of the most unpredictable elections in recent British history.

For all the latest results follow our election night live blog here

Who is going to win?

The Conservative lead the Labour Party in the final poll of the campaign, a result that tallies with the findings of YouGov’s last survey of the election. According to YouGov – which correctly called the result of the 2017 general election result – the party looks set to win a majority of 28.

However, analysis by Datapraxis suggests that, with such a large number of seats still in the balance, the result is by no means cut and dry. According to the polling company, we have “never seen as many undecided voters this late in the campaign” - meaning that while a Tory landslide is possible, so too is another hung parliament.

The Datapraxis analysis shows that as few as 150,000 voters across 80 to 90 marginal seats will decide the result.

Bookmakers have the Conservatives as odds-on favourites at a best price of 1/25 to win the most seats and 4/11 to take an overall majority. Labour is at 14/1 to win the most seats and 25/1 for a majority.

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Latest voting intention polls
PollsterConLabLDGrnBXPCon/La gapFieldwork
YouGov (MRP)43%34%12%3%3%9%4-10/12
YouGov43%33%13%3%3%10%5-6/12
Opinium45%33%12%2%2%12%10-11/12
BMG41%32%14%4%4%9%4-6/12
ComRes41%33%12%2%4%8%4-5/12
Panelbase43%34%13%2%3%9%4-6/12
Survation (phone)45%31%11%2%4%14%5-7/12
ICM42%35%13%2%3%7%29-11/12
Kantar44%32%15%3%2%12%28/11-2/12
Ipsos-MORI44%33%12%3%2%11%9-11/12
Deltapoll44%33%11%2%3%11%5-7/12
And how would that translate into seats?

Under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system, national polling results tell only half the story. This is because a party could have strong support concentrated in one area, meaning that the number of votes it wins there does not translate into more seats in parliament.

A party whose support is concentrated in certain areas will pick up far more seats than a party with the same number of votes spread evenly around the country.

For example, the Liberal Democrats won almost 2.4 million votes in 2017, but won just 12 seats because their voters were spread across the UK. The Scottish National Party won just over 977,000 votes, but won 35 seats because its vote is focused in Scotland.

Some polling companies attempt to turn their national polling figures into seats:

Electoral Calculus models polling across individual constituencies.

 ConLabLib DemBXPGreenSNPOther*
Vote43.4%34.3%12.1%3.1%2.3%3.5%1.3%
Seats34822713014120

* Plaid Cymru, Democratic Unionist Party, Sinn Fein, Alliance Party of Northern Ireland

Elections Etc combines polling, betting markets and so-called “citizens forecasts”.

 ConLabLib DemBXPGreenSNPOther*
Vote42.4%30.5%14.8%3.7%3%3.5%N/A
Seats35320923014420

YouGov has produced its final poll of the election, its MRP model using data up to 10 December. It also generates individual constituency polling, however it does not provide voting intention figures for Northern Ireland.

 

 

Con

 

Lab

 

Lib Dem

 

BXP

 

Green

 

SNP

 

Other**

 

Vote

 

43%

 

34%

 

12%

 

3%

 

3%

 

3%

 

2%

 

Seats

 

339

 

231

 

15

 

0

 

1

 

41

 

5

 

**Does not include data for 18 seats in Northern Ireland

How are the parties trying to win our vote?

Here are The Week’s guides to the main parties’ policies:

The Tory manifestoThe Labour manifestoThe Liberal Democrat manifestoThe Brexit Party manifestoThe Green Party manifestoThe general election manifestos at a glance

What happens if there’s another hung parliament?

In the event of a hung parliament, the incumbent has the first opportunity to put together a viable government. Next in line is the party with the largest number of seats.

The Conservatives are unlikely to agree a pact with the DUP again, because the DUP has said Johnson’s EU withdrawal deal is unacceptable, while the smaller opposition parties have hinted that they would be open to talking to Labour about forming an anti-Conservative government.

Read more here.

What will a Conservative majority mean for Brexit?

The polls suggest that the Tories are on course to win an overall majority, a development that will mean Johnson is in a strong position to rush his Brexit deal back into the House of Commons.

A re-elected Tory government would begin putting Johnson’s EU withdrawal agreement through parliament before Christmas in order to honour the 31 January Brexit deadline.

The PM would then seek to negotiate a new trade deal with the EU in 2020 and would rule out extending the Brexit transition period beyond the end of 2020. This means that if negotiations are not complete by December 2020, the threat of Britain leaving without a deal would once again rear its head.

Read more here.

Can Labour form the next government?

It could, but it would require the polls to be seriously wrong again – and some serious negotiations in the days following the election.

It looks almost impossible for Labour to win a majority, so any Labour-fronted government would have to be a coalition. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has all but ruled out a coalition with the Lib Dems, telling Metro that the party “happily signed up to austerity” when they entered government with the Tories in 2010.

While talks with the Lib Dems look like a non-starter, the SNP and Plaid Cymru have both hinted that they would be open to talking with Labour, though whether either of them would go into a formal coalition is not clear.

Read more here.

So what’s the most likely outcome?

At the moment, a Conservative majority appears to be the most likely outcome, with the Tories maintaining their lead on election day, according to the final polling results.

But as the Datapraxis analysis has shown, this final result will be decided by a number of marginal constituencies that are currently too close to call. Never before have there been so many undecided voters and the choices on offer to them have rarely been so stark.

According to the Ipsos Mori poll, 41% of Liberal Democrat supporters say they could still change their mind, most likely to back an anti-Brexit Labour candidate. And Labour supporters appear marginally more likely to change their mind than their Conservative-backing peers, by 25% to 17%.

Boris Johnson leads Jeremy Corbyn in terms of who voters believe would be the most capable prime minister, with 43% preferring the Conservative leader while 29% back his Labour rival.

In the event that the Tories do get their majority, expect the weeks before Christmas to be as frantic as the campaign, with Johnson rushing to re-table his withdrawal agreement in order to hit his 31 January departure deadline.

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––For a round-up of the most important stories from around the world - and a concise, refreshing and balanced take on the week’s news agenda - try The Week magazine. Start your trial subscription today –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

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