‘Chicken run’: will red wall Tories defect to Labour?
Conservative backbenchers frustrated over negative headlines and ‘levelling up’ promises
Boris Johnson’s government is reportedly on “red alert” over fears that northern Conservative MPs may defect to Labour ahead of the next general election.
Party whips are worried that some so-called red wall backbenchers could attempt a “chicken run” to a safe Labour seat, or switch sides in the same seat, according to The Mail on Sunday. A recent Deltapoll survey for the newspaper of more than 1,500 UK adults suggested that the Conservative Party faces a polling crash in the 57 seats gained by the Tories in the last general election.
And analysis of parliamentary voting records reportedly reveals “a concerted pushback by a small core of Tory MPs against No. 10”, with 15 Tory MPs representing “former Labour strongholds or marginals” voting against their own party on five or more occasions.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Red Wall troubles
Mutinous Tories “insist there have been no discussions” about crossing the floor, said The Mail on Sunday. But Johnson is facing growing pressure from backbenchers as frustration mounts following weeks of negative headlines and a lack of movement on promises to “level up” the UK’s left-behind regions.
In an article for The Times, red wall rising star Ben Houchen, the Tory mayor for Tees Valley, warned the prime minister that MPs needed tangible evidence of progress on the government’s promises of “investment, jobs and progress” in left-behind northern constituencies.
“Voters are also realists – they know that levelling up is not something that will be delivered in just a year or two, it will be a decades long project,” Houchen wrote.
“But they do need to see progress, and this means steel going up to deliver new factories, spades in the ground for new energy infrastructure, and cranes in action as new bridges are built out over waters.”
Other red wall MPs have expressed similar frustration with “what some of them described as Downing Street’s poor communication and insensitivity to issues that disproportionately affect voters in poor parts of northern England”, said Business Insider.
Many voted against the government’s Health and Care Bill over fears that some people might be forced to sell their homes to pay for care. An unnamed Tory MP representing a seat in northwest England told the site that “if it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck. It doesn’t sound fair and it isn’t fair. A lot of homes in the North are worth less than £100,000.“
Another Tory MP pointed to the botched presentation of the Integrated Rail Plan, which axed key stretches of the HS2 rail line in northeast England. The politician said there had been widespread “anger over how the rail announcements were dealt with”.
“Underneath it all, it was a really good news story which turned into anything but,” the MP added.
The recent poll for The Mail on Sunday suggests that along with the growing discontent in his party, Johnson is also losing the trust of voters in red wall constituencies. The survey found that the Tories were trailing 16 points behind Labour in red wall seats that the PM “needs to retain to win the next election”.
Of 1,567 people quizzed in the final week of 2021 in the 57 constituencies gained by the Tories in 2019, 49% said they would vote Labour if a general election were held now, with the Conservatives on just 33%.
A total of 38% said Keir Starmer was the best person for the top job of PM, while 33% chose Johnson.
The poll also put Labour ahead in national voting intention, with Starmer’s party on 40% and the Tories on 35%.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Today's political cartoons - March 16, 2024
Cartoons Saturday's cartoons - pointed commentary, Haiti in trouble, and more
By The Week US Published
-
5 hilarious cartoons about the RNC's MAGA takeover
Cartoons Artists take on RNC funding, Lara Trump, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Trump's presidential run: a bad bet for Republicans?
Talking Point The GOP is taking a 'big gamble' on former president's 2024 White House bid
By The Week UK Published
-
Will new Welsh leader change UK relations?
Today's Big Question Vaughan Gething or Jeremy Miles will have to decide how closely to follow Keir Starmer when they become first minister
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Britain's biggest political donors
The Explainer With the 2024 general election set to be the highest-spending contest ever we look at who is giving to which party and why
By The Week UK Published
-
Can Boris Johnson save Rishi Sunak?
Today's Big Question Former PM could 'make the difference' between losing the next election and annihilation
By The Week UK Published
-
Badenoch, Johnson or 'full Trump': who is the future of the Tory Party?
Today's Big Question Tory moderates are preparing to do battle with the right of the party in a post-Sunak leadership election
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
It's the economy, Sunak: has 'Rishession' halted Tory fightback?
Today's Big Question PM's pledge to deliver economic growth is 'in tatters' as stagnation and falling living standards threaten Tory election wipeout
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Why is rural England turning its back on the Tories?
Today's Big Question Subsidies, energy costs and post-Brexit fallout have upset 'blue hedge' voters
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Nicola Sturgeon and the Covid Inquiry: another blow to her reputation?
Talking Point Scotland's ex-leader provokes outrage with testimony to Covid Inquiry about deleted WhatsApp messages from pandemic
By The Week UK Published
-
What will £28bn green investment U-turn cost Labour?
Today's Big Question Dropping flagship pledge 'will confirm workers' scepticism of the endless promises of jam tomorrow', said union leader
By The Week UK Published