‘Living with Covid’: expert predictions for the next stage of pandemic
Government advisers fear summer wave will follow lifting of coronavirus restrictions
A fall in Covid-19 cases and “plateau” in hospital admissions across the UK have increased hopes of an imminent return to everyday life.
The drop in reported new infections suggests that the Omicron wave may have finally “passed its peak”, said New Scientist. Latest government data shows that as of yesterday, the weekly tally of cases had dropped by almost 42% to just over 700,000.
Summer wave
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Scientists advising the government have predicted a “fresh wave” of the variant in early summer as people “resume social activities and immunity wanes”, reported The Guardian. But the speedy rollout of the booster vaccine programme, and the comparatively less severe nature of Omicron, have boosted confidence that the UK will be able to cope.
Experts from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said they were “increasingly confident that the worst-case scenarios for the current wave are very unlikely to occur”, the newspaper continued.
Even so, scientists predicted at a meeting earlier this month that “hospital admissions in England will remain high for some time as a result of the very high number of infections and the continued risk of hospitalisation for the elderly and unvaccinated adults in particular”.
New mutations
“Looking at it from a UK point of view, there does appear to be light at the end of the tunnel,” David Nabarro, a World Health Organization special envoy for Covid-19, told Sky News on Monday. But the emergence of new mutations could make things “bumpy before we get to the end”, he said.
“So even though it’s possible to start imagining that the end of the pandemic is not far away, just everybody be ready for the possibility that there will be more variations and mutations coming along, or that there will be further challenges, other surges of even Omicron coming,” Nabarro added.
Experts told Live Science that the emergence of a new Covid-19 variant was “predictable” given the current rate of Covid-19 infection worldwide and the rate of mutation.
Not every variant will be “competitive” enough to become as widespread as the Omicron variant, or Delta before it, said Karen Mossman, a professor of pathology and molecular medicine at McMaster University in Ontario. But future variants could gain what the website described as a “competitive edge” by being “more transmissible than Omicron while causing less severe disease”.
“Viruses need to propagate and spread to new hosts,” Mossman explained. And the “most successful viruses do this by rapidly spreading without causing symptoms”, because the infected people continue circulating and spreading the bug.
But on the other hand, she added, “a collection of mutations that provide a selective advantage may also induce more severe disease”.
For example, said Live Science, mutations that “grant the virus the ability to replicate incredibly quickly, or escape the clutches of the antibodies that prevent it from entering cells”, could also make the virus more likely to trigger severe infection.
Ebola, HIV and smallpox are all diseases that have not reduced in severity, despite existing for decades or even hundreds of years.
Living with Covid
According to The Telegraph, Boris Johnson “wants to permanently repeal emergency coronavirus laws which have governed how the public can live for almost two years”.
With scientists predicting that the virus is unlikely to disappear completely, the government is reportedly keen to adopt an approach of “learning to live with Covid”.
Speculation is mounting that Plan B restrictions will end on 26 January, the review date set by the prime minister when the rules were imposed last month. Johnson is also said to be considering proposals to scrap legal requirements for infected people to self-isolate.
Under the plans, “official guidance would remain in place which encourages people to behave in certain ways, but would not result in fines or legal punishment if ignored”, said the newspaper.
Government science advisers and healthcare leaders have cautioned against dropping Plan B restrictions “prematurely”, the Financial Times reported.
In minutes from a Sage meeting on 7 January that were published on Friday, advisers warned that the current wave “still had the potential to continue to grow nationally”.
The removal of Plan B restrictions before the peak had passed could lead to changes in behaviour and “increase the overall impact of this wave on hospitalisations”, the experts said.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Today's political cartoons - March 16, 2024
Cartoons Saturday's cartoons - pointed commentary, Haiti in trouble, and more
By The Week US Published
-
5 hilarious cartoons about the RNC's MAGA takeover
Cartoons Artists take on RNC funding, Lara Trump, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Trump's presidential run: a bad bet for Republicans?
Talking Point The GOP is taking a 'big gamble' on former president's 2024 White House bid
By The Week UK Published
-
Excess screen time is making children only see what is in front of them
Under the radar The future is looking blurry. And very nearsighted.
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
Has the international pandemic treaty lost its way?
Under The Radar 'Wrangling and disinformation' mean plans for a global preparedness agreement are close to crumbling
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Covid-19: what to know about UK's new Juno and Pirola variants
in depth Rapidly spreading new JN.1 strain is 'yet another reminder that the pandemic is far from over'
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
Long-term respiratory illness is here to stay
The Explainer Covid is not the only disease with a long version
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
Covid inquiry: the most important questions for Boris Johnson
Talking Point Former PM has faced weeks of heavy criticism from former colleagues at the public hearing
By The Week Staff Published
-
China's pneumonia cases: should we be worried?
The Explainer Experts warn against pushing 'pandemic panic button' following outbreak of respiratory illness
By Keumars Afifi-Sabet, The Week UK Published
-
Vallance diaries: Boris Johnson 'bamboozled' by Covid science
Speed Read Then PM struggled to get his head around key terms and stats, chief scientific advisor claims
By The Week UK Published
-
An increasing number of dog owners are 'vaccine hesitant' about rabies
Speed Read A new survey points to canine vaccine hesitancy
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published