What does China stand to gain from opening talks with the Taliban?

China’s foreign minister has met with a Taliban delegation in the latest sign of increasing warmth between Beijing and the insurgent group that is rapidly expanding its influence across Afghanistan.

Wang Yi told the nine-strong group, including Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, that China would “play an important role in the process of peaceful reconciliation and reconstruction in Afghanistan”, according to a foreign ministry readout, stressing that the insurgents should crack down on any “direct threat to China’s national security”.

The meeting came as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN-News18 during a trip to India that Afghanistan risks becoming a “pariah state” if the Taliban successfully regains control. He said that “the taking over of the country by force and abusing the rights of its people is not the path to achieve” the group’s “objectives”.

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‘Failure of US policy’

As the Taliban makes increasing gains during a surge of fighting across Afghanistan, its leaders have “stepped up their international diplomacy” as part of an effort to seek “global recognition for when they hope to return to power”, Al Jazeera says.

Taliban spokesperson Mohammed Naeem was keen to stress that the meeting with Wang Yi “was at the invitation from Chinese authorities”, the broadcaster adds, leading to suggestions that the talks were a “gift from Beijing towards that legitimacy”.

The visit will likely “further cement the insurgent group’s recognition on the international stage”, Reuters says, particularly “at a sensitive time” when violence and civilian casualties are increasing in Afghanistan, especially around rural areas and border posts.

Naeem later tweeted that the Taliban delegation discussed “politics, economy and issues related to the security of both countries and the current situation of Afghanistan and the peace process” during the talks.

The Chinese foreign minister also raised the issue of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, a group China claims is “active in the Xinjiang region in China’s far west”, prompting fears in Beijing that “neighbouring Afghanistan could be used as a staging ground for separatists”, Al Jazeera says.

“The delegation assured China that they will not allow anyone to use Afghan soil against China,” Naeem told reporters following the meeting. “China also reiterated its commitment of continuation of their assistance with Afghans and said they will not interfere in Afghanistan’s issues but will help to solve the problems and restoration of peace in the country.”

China’s foreign ministry spokesperson also later sought to underscore its aims, stating that “China has throughout adhered to non-interference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs” in contrast to the “failure of US policy towards Afghanistan”.

Asked about the talks during his visit to India, Blinken said that it was a “positive thing” if China was seeking to promote the need for “some kind of [Afghan] government… that’s truly representative and inclusive”.

Adding that “no one has an interest in a military takeover by the Taliban [and] the restoration of an Islamic emirate”, Blinken continued: “An Afghanistan that does not respect the rights of its people, an Afghanistan that commits atrocities against its own people would become a pariah state.”

Chinese diplomacy

“Despite its horror of Islamist fundamentalism”, Beijing’s “willingness to co-operate with the Taliban should not come as a surprise”, says The Times’s diplomatic correspondent Catherine Philp. As a longstanding ally of Pakistan, Beijing’s decisions “have logic behind them” given the Taliban has “never exported terrorism beyond their ethnic domain”.

While the government in Beijing has come under intense international scrutiny for its persecution of the Muslim minority Uighurs, “chaos in Afghanistan could cause regional instability that might reach China but a compact with the Taliban could also be a means to contain it”, she adds. “China is betting it can prevent that from happening.”

This is echoed by Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at the Rand Corporation. He suggests that while the US presence in Afghanistan was “not always appreciated” by other regional powers, it “nevertheless served as a predictable and stabilising force”.

Writing on Foreign Policy, he says that “the prospect of renewed Taliban rule has sparked major anxiety among the region’s powers”, prompting Beijing to begin “​​quietly” securing its “interests in post-US Afghanistan”.

These interests include ongoing negotiations to build a motorway connecting Peshawar in Pakistan and Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital city. This could potentially allow Beijing to extend its Belt and Road Initiative into the country and expand its influence in the region.

Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the state-owned Global Times, has said that those suggesting the Taliban are “an enemy of China's national interests” are relying on “emotional, naive and deeply out of place” claims, adding: “Some Chinese netizens do not understand Afghanistan.”

In a signal of the mood music among Chinese officials, he adds: “The situation around Afghanistan is rather complex, but China clearly knows what its national interests are. We should not create enemies for ourselves at this crunch time.

“In particular, we should not easily reject the goodwill from the Taliban, which is of great significance to our exerting influence in Afghanistan and maintaining stability in Xinjiang.”

In The Times, Philp adds that “China’s dealings with the Taliban might appear cynical” in light of the ongoing repression of the Uighurs, but “ignoring Xinjiang makes the Taliban’s embrace of Beijing far more cynical”.

Instead, the move is seen by China as an extension of its policy of non-intervention in domestic affairs in the pursuit of greater global influence.

As Hu Xijin suggests in Global Times, Beijing’s foreign doctrine is built around the principle that “value-oriented diplomacy can only be used when it is highly aligned with the national interests”.

“International relations are changing all the time”, he adds. “Some observers keep advocating China to make an enemy of the Taliban, which is in line with the interests of the US with no benefit to China at all.”