Is Germany’s fourth wave of Covid-19 a warning of things to come?

Officials in Germany are considering expanding Covid-19 restrictions after the country’s infection rate reached its highest point since the outbreak of the pandemic.

The three parties currently in coalition talks to form a new government have “proposed measures to tackle the spread of the new wave of infections”, Reuters said. Robert Habeck, co-leader of the Green Party, told broadcaster ARD: “We are expanding the toolbox compared to the proposals introduced in the first reading.”

Departing Chancellor Angela Merkel has also “called on unvaccinated Germans to get their shots as quickly as possible” amid rocketing infections, The Guardian said, with France 24 suggesting that the sudden outbreak could be a “warning for the rest of Europe”.

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‘Difficult weeks ahead’

Germany’s seven-day incidence rate — the number of people per 100,000 to be infected over the past week, which is used by the government to track the country’s infections — has today risen to 303 from 289, according to the Robert Koch Institute.

The number of deaths since the pandemic arrived in Germany also increased by 43 to a total of 97,715, the government agency added.

The Times’ Berlin correspondent Oliver Moody tweeted that “the number of breakthrough infections is rising sharply”, adding that “infections will rapidly become a much bigger problem” as “immunity drops sharply five to six months” after a second vaccination.

“Roughly 30 million people are due to hit that drop over the next two months,” he added, explaining that “staffing shortages mean there are fewer intensive care beds than this time last year and they are swiftly filling up”.

Speaking on her weekly podcast, Bundeskanzlerin, Merkel said the nation has “very difficult weeks ahead of us”, adding that those who have so far refused a vaccine should “think about it again”.

“I am asking you, join us, and try to convince relatives and friends as well,” she continued, describing booster vaccinations as “a real chance to break the severe fall and winter wave of the pandemic”.

“So far only 3.8 million have had their booster”, The Times’ Moody tweeted. “But most vaccination centres are still closed.”

Merkel will “meet the country’s 16 state governors to coordinate nationwide measures next week”, The Guardian reported, while “parliament is mulling legislation that would provide a new legal framework for restrictions over the winter”.

Germany has “struggled to bring new momentum to its vaccination campaign lately, with a bit over two-thirds of the population fully vaccinated”, the paper added. The government is also to begin offering free Covid-19 tests again after “they were scrapped a month ago in an effort to persuade more people to get vaccinated”.

Health Minister Jens Spahn said the government must do “everything necessary” to break the fourth wave. “The situation is serious and I recommend that everyone takes it as such,” he said. Singling out the states of Saxony, Thuringia and Bavaria as areas with high rates of infection and low vaccination coverage, Spahn recommended the introduction of “2G+” measures to curb rising Covid rates.

“2G” is the name given in Germany to “an entry policy to events and public venues, permitting entry to people who are vaccinated or recovered from Covid-19”, Deutsche Welle said. Spahn’s suggestion that “2G+” rules should be introduced would mean “people looking to attend such events should also be tested first”.

Warning shot

As cases rise, one of the country’s “top virologists” warned that another “100,000 people will die” unless something is “done to halt an aggressive fourth wave”, the BBC said.

Christian Drosten, a virologist who has risen to national prominence during the pandemic, described the events in Germany as an “emergency situation”, adding: “We have to act right now.”

His warning came as doctors in the intensive care Covid ward at Leipzig University Hospital warned that the “fourth wave could be the worst yet”, the broadcaster added.

“It’s very difficult to get staff motivated to treat patients now in this fourth wave,” Professor Sebastian Stehr, who heads the department, told the BBC. “A large part of the population still underestimates the problem.”

Weeks after the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that Europe is once again at the “epicentre” of the pandemic, experts have warned that the scenes in Germany could soon be “replicated in other European countries”, France 24 said.

A “cocktail of particularly explosive elements” could explain “why the fourth wave of Covid-19 in Germany appears to be, in many ways, the worst”, the broadcaster continued.

This includes “the one-third of adults who are not yet vaccinated” and waning vaccine protections among “elderly people who are among the populations most at risk”.

Oxford University tracking shows 67% of Germans are fully vaccinated against Covid-19, a figure matched exactly by the UK. France has fully inoculated 69% of its population, compared with 73% and 80% in Italy and Spain respectively.

Germany’s infection spike is making countries with similar vaccination rates “sweat”, France 24 said. “A new wave is not inevitable in any part of Europe,” but Germany shows that “more attention should be given to measures other than vaccination”.

“It remains to be seen whether other countries will learn the lessons from Germany in time.”