Why has Viktor Orbán declared a state of emergency over Ukraine?

Viktor Orbán has declared a state of emergency in Hungary, introducing a wide-ranging windfall tax to combat a cost-of-living crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine.

The newly re-elected prime minister told MPs that the measures would give him the power to respond with “real guts” to the looming crisis. But he “resisted blaming” the emergency on his previously “close ally” Vladimir Putin, The Times said.

“The years between 2020 and 2030 will be a decade of dangers, uncertainty and war,” Orbán said.

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“In such an era, Hungary cannot afford the luxury of irresponsibility, disunity and weakness. This requires room for manoeuvre and immediate action.”

Era of the strongman

On the surface, the new measures are intended to ensure that Orbán and his government can “respond more quickly to challenges created by the war in neighboring Ukraine”, Politico reported.

They hand the prime minister direct power to “approve measures by decree”, a lever he described to MPs as being necessary to tackle the oncoming “economic crisis”.

He later announced a “windfall tax on all banks, insurers, telecoms, airlines and energy trading companies”, The Times reported, which will be used to create two “defence” funds to avoid “drastic price increases” and to strengthen the army “immediately”.

But critics said “the move will only serve to tighten Orbán’s grip on power”, Politico added, “threatening fundamental rights and diminishing the importance of parliament”.

The prime minister has sought to downplay these fears, telling MPs yesterday: “We have seen that the war and sanctions from Brussels have brought about a great economic upheaval and drastic price rises. The world is on the brink of an economic crisis.

“Hungary has to stay out of this war and has to protect the financial security of families,” he said, adding that the increased powers “will allow the government to react immediately and protect Hungary and Hungarian families by all possible means”.

Having governed Hungary since 2010, Orbán “enjoys almost complete control of his country’s political system”, The Economist reported.

In the April election in which he retained power, his party “held on to its two-thirds share of the seats in parliament, a super-majority that allows it to change the constitution at will”.

His warnings over “inflation and economic upheaval” as a result of the war in Ukraine are not necessarily misplaced, the paper added. But he “likes a crisis, so long as it lets him rule by decree”.

Uncertain territory

Missing from the crisis declaration was any recognition of “Russia’s guilt in launching the war”, The Economist said. But Orbán “is, by a long chalk, the most Russia-friendly leader in the EU”.

This close relationship has been borne out in Orbán’s refusal to discuss the EU’s proposal for an embargo on Russian oil at a summit of member states next week.

In what came as a “fresh blow to the union’s efforts to win backing for its landmark sanctions package”, the Financial Times reported that the Hungarian strongman wrote to European Council President Charles Michel outlining how his country “could not support the sanctions without more detail on the EU financing available to help Budapest”.

“Discussing the sanctions package at the level of leaders in the absence of a consensus would be counterproductive,” Orbán wrote in the letter seen by the paper. “It would only highlight our internal divisions without offering a realistic chance to resolve differences. Therefore, I propose not to address this issue at the next European Council.”

Orbán’s historically close relationship with Putin forced him to rethink his election messaging in the run-up to April’s vote.

His popularity has since been buoyed “by price caps and controls on food and energy”, The Times said. But the looming danger is that “these look increasingly unrealistic as costs soar due to supply disruption and the rising costs of energy”.

Home front

Orbán’s critics have been quick to hit back at the new state of emergency measures.

The Hungarian Helsinki Committee (HHC), a rights organisation, said in a statement that it provides “yet another carte blanche mandate” to override the parliament.

The Hungarian Civil Liberties Union (TASZ) warned the state of emergency in Hungary “has become permanent”, a reference to emergency measures imposed during the Covid-19 crisis that were due to expire on 1 June.

Orbán is being handed “more leeway than usual” by the new measures, the group said, adding: “The government has already used the special legal order to achieve its own goals of power, and it was not driven by the desire to protect citizens.”

Having served as prime minister for more than a decade, Orbán’s government has “already been under EU scrutiny for democratic backsliding”, EU Observer said.

He “hardly seems to need more power”, The Economist added. But he has laid all of the groundwork to constantly “bypass parliamentary scrutiny” and “rule by decree”.