Scotland panic over? New poll shows No camp back in the lead

To the undoubted relief of Westminster's three musketeers - David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg - the latest poll on Scotland's voting intentions in next Thursday's independence referendum shows the No campaign with a clear, if modest, six per cent lead.

The three party leaders, who headed north of the border earlier today to campaign against a split in the Union, can't claim any credit. The Survation poll for the Daily Record was largely completed before the trio decided that the traditional Wednesday shouting match in the Commons - Prime Minister's Questions - was less important than saving the kingdom.

In the Daily Record, news of the poll, released tonight, shares top billing with the report of Cameron's visit to Scotland, when he told his audience: "Don't destroy the Union just to give the 'effing' Tories a kick."

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The significance of the Survation poll, which shows No on 53 per cent and Yes on 47 per cent (after sharing out the 'don't knows'), is that it was conducted after the surveys by YouGov and TNS which created the panic in Westminster at the start of the week. (YouGov came up with a two-point Yes lead only weeks after registering a 22-point advantage for No; TNS showed Yes and No running neck-and-neck.)

Commenting on the Survation poll, the Record, which supports the No campaign, says: "While it means the referendum result is still on a knife edge, it may signal the Nationalist momentum, built on the back of other narrow polls, may have peaked too early.

The pros and cons of Scottish independence

"With the race tightening with just seven days to go, observers had widely expected the poll to show a lead for the Yes campaign as Survation has consistently put Yes support higher than other pollsters."

The Survation poll points to a significant gender gap, with women favouring the No campaign. Men are almost exactly evenly split on independence, with 46.4 per cent planning to vote Yes and 46.8 per cent voting No. But a 48 to 36 gap among women gives the Unionists their lead.

While it's true that a mere three per cent swing from No would give Alex Salmond and the SNP the victory they crave, it's equally a fact that only twice has their Yes campaign enjoyed a lead in the more than 50 polls that have been carried out since the referendum date was set.

There are more polls to come, including a YouGov survey for The Times expected tomorrow night and one from ICM. The latter is the one to watch, according to Mike Smithson of Political Betting, because of their referendum track record.

In the Alternative Vote referendum in 2011, ICM's final poll was just 0.2 per cent away from the actual outcome. YouGov was adrift by more than 15 per cent. Smithson believes polls conducted by phone - as are ICM's - are more likely to produce a representative sample than the internet panel-based research used by YouGov.

Another big issue as we consider the results of the recent polling, is just how big the turnout will be next Thursday.

Speculation that it will be very high was supported by this week's TNS survey. They said that their surveys over the past six months had consistently shown that 70 - 75 per cent of the electorate claim to be certain to vote. In their latest poll, this jumped to 84 per cent.

Mike Smithson doubts the turnout will be that high. He says experience shows that the people most likely to vote are those who've done it before. At the 2011 Holyrood election - the one that the SNP won, triggering the referendum – the turnout was just 50 per cent. At the 2010 UK general election, 63.8 per cent of Scots voted, as against an average of 65.1 per cent across the UK.

Smithson, a wily poll watcher, believes it is older Scottish voters who hold the key to this referendum. "Across all the polling that we’ve seen, the older generation has remained solid for Scotland to remain in the UK. Indeed in [Sunday's] YouGov poll we saw an increase in support for No from the oldest voters.

"We also know from other polling that, the older you are, the less likely it is that you will change your mind. That relates to all elections and not just the referendum. Although the general trend has been towards a closer result, my reading is that the oldies will prevail."

No coincidence, perhaps, that the task of saving the Union has fallen to former prime minister Gordon Brown – aged 63.

For a balanced, in-depth discussion of the historical context of the current debate about Scottish independence, read The Week's ebook, Independence for Scotland?, available now from Amazon.