Rutherglen by-election: a pivotal moment for Labour in Scotland?
The contest in Rutherglen and Hamilton West is being seen as a chance for the party to rebuild its Scottish credentials
The UK is headed for yet another by-election in the constituency of Rutherglen and Hamilton West, viewed as a bellwether for the strength of Scottish Labour’s recovery – and an indicator of who may win the next general election.
Constituents in the Greater Glasgow seat voted for their MP, Margaret Ferrier, to be removed following her 30-day suspension from the Commons for breaking travel rules during lockdown. The rule breach saw the MP ousted from the Scottish National Party, forcing her to sit as an independent.
Ferrier first won the seat for the SNP in 2015 before Scottish Labour reclaimed it in 2017. Two years later, she won it back again with a majority of 5,000. The tit-for-tat exchange of power means both the SNP and Scottish Labour “have an imperative to win the by-election”, said The Spectator’s political editor Katy Balls.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A ‘perfect opportunity’ for Labour
This by-election offers Keir Starmer’s Labour Party “the perfect opportunity to re-establish its electoral credentials in Scotland”, said Sky News.
If Labour hopes to win back power nationally, proving they can overturn a majority of 5,000 votes “is essential”, the broadcaster added. But “it is not enough that Labour wins – the size of victory is of equal importance”.
And the significance of this by-election goes deeper still, as it will “highlight the major fault lines that criss-cross contemporary Scottish politics”, Sky said, “divisions that also appear within political parties”.
The by-election has also been a long time coming. Technically, it will only get under way once a writ has been issued by Parliament and the local returning officer has “got their ducks in a row”, the BBC said but, in reality, the campaign in Rutherglen and Hamilton West “has been running for months”.
For its part, Labour selected its candidate – teacher and activist Michael Shanks – back in May. Starmer has paid the constituency two visits since March, and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar is “an even more frequent visitor”. First Minister Humza Yousaf of the SNP, meanwhile, has taken part in door-knocking sessions as part of a series of “days of action” across the seat.
The SNP’s candidate is Cambuslang councillor Katy Loudon, while the Conservatives have announced that their candidate will be Glasgow City Council Tory group leader Thomas Kerr. Other candidates are also expected to emerge and Ferrier herself can stand again if she wants, though she is yet to announce her candidacy.
‘Crucial momentum ahead of general election’
Strong feelings are swirling in the constituency, according to the Scottish Herald, which sent its political correspondent Kathleen Nutt to gauge the mood on the streets.
“I don’t know who I’m going to vote for,” one long-standing independence supporter, Marion Campbell, told Nutt, but “not the SNP”.
Another voter, Tony Cordell, said he would not be voting for Labour or the SNP. “I’ll vote for the Greens if they stand,” he said. “If they don’t I wouldn’t vote for the SNP. I think the last few months have shown they are more corrupt than the mainstream. I wouldn’t vote for Labour either though. I think they have shown total disrespect towards Scotland and I don’t like their assumption that they are going to win.”
Figures in the Leader’s Office will be “closely watching the result”, said The Spectator’s Katy Balls. Starmer’s team believe that sufficient gains in Scotland mean they would “win a general election outright”. Winning 20 Scottish seats or more “is viewed as the difference between a majority and a hung parliament”, Balls added.
The road to victory in a general election remains incredibly challenging, Sky News noted. To win outright, Starmer “needs to out-perform Tony Blair in 1997” and even back then, Blair owed his majority to “a phalanx of support elected from Scottish constituencies”.
Regardless of who wins the seat, they will be fighting for it again in about a year’s time anyway, with the next general election looming, the BBC said. But this is no mere “dress rehearsal”, the broadcaster added. The victor here “will feel they have built some crucial momentum ahead of that pivotal UK-wide contest”.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Arion McNicoll is a freelance writer at The Week Digital and was previously the UK website’s editor. He has also held senior editorial roles at CNN, The Times and The Sunday Times. Along with his writing work, he co-hosts “Today in History with The Retrospectors”, Rethink Audio’s flagship daily podcast, and is a regular panellist (and occasional stand-in host) on “The Week Unwrapped”. He is also a judge for The Publisher Podcast Awards.
-
5 high-caliber cartoons about Kristi Noem shooting her puppy
Cartoons Artists take on the rainbow bridge, a farm upstate, and more
By The Week US Published
-
The Week Unwrapped: Why is the world running low on blood?
Podcast Scientists believe universal donor blood is within reach – plus, the row over an immersive D-Day simulation, and an Ozempic faux pas
By The Week Staff Published
-
Rishi Sunak's asylum spat with Ireland explained
In Depth Irish government plans to override court ruling that the UK is unsafe for asylum seekers
By The Week UK Published
-
John Swinney: the SNP's ultimate 'safe pair of hands'
Why Everyone's Talking About Former leader described as a 'serious person for serious times' is front runner to replace Humza Yousaf
By The Week UK Published
-
Humza Yousaf clears the decks to battle no-confidence vote
Speed Read First minister is 'done', according to insider, but a single vote could change the balance
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
India elections start amid violence, hate speech accusations
Talking Points Narendra Modi seeks a third term while critics worry about the future of the country's democracy
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Peter Murrell: Sturgeon's husband charged over SNP 'embezzlement' claims
Speed Read SNP expresses 'shock' as former chief executive rearrested in long-running investigation into claims of mishandled campaign funds
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
Angela Rayner: did she commit tax fraud?
Talking point An unofficial biography released in March claimed that she avoided paying capital gains tax on a 2015 property sale
By The Week UK Published
-
Why did Oregon recriminalize drug possession?
Talking Points Arrests resume in the Beaver State, along with a new treatment effort
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Black and Hispanic voters: why they’re turning right
Talking Point Polling indicates that the groups may no longer be Democratic Party strongholds
By The Week UK Published
-
The Garrick: unfit for the modern world?
Talking Point Founded in 1831, the club is composed solely of men
By The Week UK Published