Is coronavirus disease X?
World Health Organization predicted unknown international pandemic in 2018
Coronavirus is “rapidly becoming” the unknown “disease X” that scientists had warned about, a World Health Organization (WHO) expert has said.
WHO said in February 2018 that it was preparing for an unknown international epidemic it called disease X.
And Professor Marion Koopmans, head of viroscience at Erasmus University Medical Centre in Rotterdam, has said coronavirus fits the profile.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
What is disease X?
In 2018, WHO included “disease X” in its list of eight “priority diseases” that required immediate attention based on epidemic potential or lack of sufficient countermeasures or vaccines.
Disease X was a placeholder name adopted by WHO for any new pathogen that could cause a pandemic but was not yet known to scientists.
According to WHO at the time, disease X “represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease, and so the R&D [research and development] Blueprint explicitly seeks to enable cross-cutting R&D preparedness that is also relevant for an unknown Disease X as far as possible”.
Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said back in 2018: “As experience has taught us, more often than not the thing that is going to hit us is something that we did not anticipate. Just the way we didn’t anticipate Zika, we didn’t think there would be an Ebola that would hit cities.”
As such, “X” stands for unexpected, he said.
Is coronavirus disease X?
Writing in the journal Cell, Professor Koopmans said: “Whether it will be contained or not, this outbreak is rapidly becoming the first true pandemic challenge that fits the Disease X category, listed to the WHO’s priority list of diseases for which we need to prepare in our current globalised society.
“Initial resemblances with the SARS outbreak in terms of its origin, the disease associated with infection, and the ability to spread are clear.”
Koopmans said that increased globalisation had made stopping the spread of the virus harder: “But since 2003, global air travel has increased more than tenfold, and the efforts needed to try to contain the epidemic are daunting.”
“In a nutshell, Covid-19 is Disease X,” says Peter Daszak, a disease ecologist and member of WHO’s R&D Blueprint group, in The New York Times.
“Disease X, we said back then, would likely result from a virus originating in animals… would probably be confused with other diseases early in the outbreak and would spread quickly and silently; exploiting networks of human travel and trade,” says Daszak.
“Disease X… would have a mortality rate higher than a seasonal flu but would spread as easily as the flu. It would shake financial markets even before it achieved pandemic status.”
As for a future after the new coronavirus outbreak, Daszak says: “Pandemics are on the rise… yet the world’s strategy for dealing with pandemics is woefully inadequate.”
He continues: “Pandemics are like terrorist attacks: We know roughly where they originate and what’s responsible for them, but we don’t know exactly when the next one will happen. They need to be handled the same way – by identifying all possible sources and dismantling those before the next pandemic strikes.”
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––For a round-up of the most important stories from around the world - and a concise, refreshing and balanced take on the week’s news agenda - try The Week magazine. Start your trial subscription today –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Did WHO know that Covid-19 was coming?
No.
An article by the Daily Express in February headlined “Did scientists know about coronavirus before outbreak? ‘Disease X’ warning revealed” implies experts may have known about the new coronavirus in 2017.
But “the fact that the WHO was talking about ‘Disease X’ in 2018 does not mean that it knew about Covid-19,” says fact-checking website Full Fact. “It means they were aware that some kind of new disease might emerge in future, just as Covid-19 has.”
WHO expected a pandemic was coming, but did not know the specifics of that disease – and certainly not that it would be novel coronavirus.
Dr Josie Golding, epidemics lead at the Wellcome Trust, told Full Fact: “Disease X does not refer to a specific pathogen. It is a term given to any as-yet unknown disease with the potential to cause a serious epidemic.”
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
'His story should be here'
Today's Newspapers A roundup of the headlines from the US front pages
By The Week Staff Published
-
'Not cross buns': the row over recipe revamps
Talking Point New versions of the Easter favourite have sparked controversy but sales are soaring
By Adrienne Wyper, The Week UK Published
-
The England kit: a furore over the flag
Why everyone's talking about Nike's redesign of the St George's Cross on the collar of the English national team's shirt has caused controversy
By The Week UK Published
-
Covid four years on: have we got over the pandemic?
Today's Big Question Brits suffering from both lockdown nostalgia and collective trauma that refuses to go away
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
How happy is Finland really?
Today's Big Question Nordic nation tops global happiness survey for seventh year in a row with 'focus on contentment over joy'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The hollow classroom
Opinion Remote school let kids down. It will take much more than extra tutoring for kids to recover.
By Mark Gimein Published
-
How Tehran became the world's nose job capital
Under the radar Iranian doctors raise alarm over low costs, weak regulation and online influence of 'Western beauty standards'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Africa's renewed battle against female genital mutilation
Under the radar Campaigners call for ban in Sierra Leone after deaths of three girls as coast-to-coast convoy prepares to depart
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Excess screen time is making children only see what is in front of them
Under the radar The future is looking blurry. And very nearsighted.
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
Argentina: the therapy capital of the world
Under the radar Buenos Aires natives go hungry to pay for psychoanalysis, amid growing instability, anxiety – and societal acceptance
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Covid-19: what to know about UK's new Juno and Pirola variants
in depth Rapidly spreading new JN.1 strain is 'yet another reminder that the pandemic is far from over'
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published